紐時賞析／情勢不樂觀…俄烏戰爭進入第三年 分析師：守住戰線是烏最佳狀況

烏克蘭克拉莫託斯克的消防隊員2月20日對抗因俄羅斯空襲而受損的淨水廠大火。（紐約時報）

Ukraine’s Deepening Fog of War

俄烏戰爭情勢 更加撲朔迷離

The forecasts are anything but optimistic: The best Ukraine can hope for in 2024, many Western officials and analysts say, is to simply hold the line.

預測絕對不樂觀：許多西方官員與分析師表示，烏克蘭在2024年可以期望的最佳狀況，就是守住戰線。

Only a year ago, Ukraine was brimming with confidence. It had defied expectations, staving off Russia’s attempt to take over the country. Western nations, buoyed by Ukraine’s success, promised aid to help Ukrainians break through Russian lines.

僅僅一年前，烏克蘭正洋溢着信心。該國曾出乎意料，擊退俄羅斯接管企圖。西方國家受到烏克蘭成功的鼓勵，承諾援助以協助烏克蘭人突破俄羅斯防線。

But the flow of much-needed weapons from allies was unpredictable and slow. Ukraine’s own domestic arms production was mired in bureaucracy, top military officials have said. And the command structure of the army was not changing quickly enough to manage a force that had expanded from 200,000 troops to nearly 1 million in a matter of months.

但是，盟邦提供的急需武器流量，既難以預測又緩慢。高層軍事官員表示，烏克蘭自己的國內軍火生產陷入官僚主義泥沼。軍隊指揮架構改變得不夠快，無法管理在幾個月內從20萬官兵擴大到近1百萬的武力。

Those weaknesses, and some strategic battlefield missteps, stymied Ukraine’s widely telegraphed counteroffensive, which resulted in only marginal territorial gains. At the same time, Russia was fortifying its defensive lines, converting its economy to war production, conscripting hundreds of thousands of fighters and adjusting its strategy for renewed offensives this winter.

這些缺點和一些戰略性戰場失策，讓烏克蘭大肆宣揚的反攻陷入困境，結果只是微不足道的領土戰果。在此同時，俄羅斯正在加強自己的防線，將經濟轉換爲戰時生產，徵召數十萬名戰士，以及調整戰略準備今年冬季恢復攻勢。

Now, as the war enters its third year, leaders in Kyiv are trying to find a new path forward amid ferocious Russian assaults, while facing a series of daunting unknowns.

如今隨着俄烏戰爭進入第三年，在俄羅斯猛烈的襲擊之下，基輔領導人正在努力尋找一條新的前進道路，同時面臨一連串讓人氣餒的未知。

Can its civilian leaders muster the will to enact a potentially unpopular mobilization plan to replenish its depleted forces? Can the military command and the civilian government mend the rifts that have divided them and that led to the recent firing of Ukraine’s top general?

文職領袖可否凝聚意志，制定可能不得民心的動員計劃以補充耗盡的部隊？軍事指揮部與文人政府，可否修補讓他們對立且導致最近烏克蘭最高將領解職的裂痕？

Even as he presses the case for more Western support, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is starting to take steps to improve some of the systemic problems under his control.

總統澤倫斯基竭力爭取更多西方援助之際，也開始採取行動，改善在他控制下的一些系統性問題。

For instance, Ukraine has added several command headquarters to oversee brigades more efficiently. And while the new top general, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, is a product of the Soviet military system, Zelenskyy has installed a younger generation of generals under him who he hopes will bring more innovation to the battlefield.

舉例來說，烏克蘭已增設幾個指揮總部，以便更有效的監督各旅。雖然新任最高將領瑟爾斯基將軍是蘇聯軍事體系的產物，澤倫斯基已在他麾下安插年輕一代將領，希望他們把更多創新帶到戰場。

The minister of defense, Rustem Umerov, has vowed to accelerate the development of ammunition production in Ukraine. He has also introduced a new procurement process to replace a post-Soviet system that was slower and more susceptible to corruption.

國防部長烏梅洛夫誓言加快烏克蘭的彈藥製造發展。他也已經引進新的採購流程，以用來取代較慢、且較容易受到貪腐影響的後蘇聯系統。

文／Marc Santora 譯／周辰陽