張競》烏克蘭永遠別指望白騎士來救

張競》烏克蘭永遠別指望白騎士來救

有位西方媒體朋友問我對於俄烏衝突感想。我回答說：「依據目前西方社會難容異見氛圍下，我的想法恐怕是政治極不正確；您問我也是白問，因爲您的媒體絕對不會刊登我的觀點。」下面是我的拙見，不知您是否同意？

No White Knight for Ukraine

烏克蘭永遠別指望白騎士來救

It is now almost three months of severe conflict from when Russia invaded Ukraine in late February. Frankly, the West is certainly not a white knight for Ukraine, notwithstanding that many western countries provided various forms of assistance. Nevertheless, absent the actual deployment of armed forces and a substantial involvement in military operations, all the aid provided to Ukraine by the United States and its western allies will only extend the duration of the fighting but is not necessarily a proper approach to end the conflict.

從二月底俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭到如今已經接近三個月；平心而論，儘管有許多西方國家以不同方式解囊濟助，但西方絕對無法成爲解救烏克蘭之白騎士(救星)。不論如何盡力，若不實際揮軍派兵入境參戰，所有由美國與其他西方盟友所提供之援助，只能將戰事繼續延長，但恐怕並非終結衝突妥善之計。

Whether or not the West’s true intention is to be a white knight that saves Ukraine remains to be seen. What we do see so far is western involvement in the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv is limited to selective engagement. There is no fundamental and decisive action to defuse the crisis, but only indirect schemes to weaken Russia and make Ukrainians the gun ashes of a prolonged armed conflict.

到目前爲止，西方各國是否真心願意承擔救援烏克蘭重責實難論斷。但就吾人所見，西方涉入俄烏雙方衝突，其實並未全心投入，同時亦顯然有所取捨；並未以斷然手法正本清源化解危機，反而是拐彎抹角企圖削弱俄羅斯，並讓烏克蘭陷身於長期衝突淪爲砲灰。

How does this conflict enlighten the many states which face relatively powerful and potential threats from a neighbor? What lessons will small nations learn from Ukraine’s experience once the cost in blood and other losses are calculated? The most important lesson perhaps should be that emerging threats must be defused before a conflict erupts. We must constantly face many black knights. There are various threats, either conventional or non-conventional, towards our national security. We must constantly fund the cost to neutralize those black knights, either with regard to their capabilities or their intentions, before such black knights become determined to use force to harm us.

此場衝突對於多個面對強鄰威脅入侵之國有何啓發呢？此等弱小國家將能從烏克蘭付出流血與毀傷慘痛代價之經驗中，獲得何種教訓呢？最重要之啓示或許就是要在戰爭衝突真正爆發前，預先化解正在浮現之威脅。世道不寧，吾人永遠必須面對人間惡徒；天下威脅處處無所不在，不論其系傳統類型抑或是非傳統模式，吾人國家安全時時面對考驗。吾人須不斷盡一切努力化解各項矛盾與威脅，不論是從實力上使其有所顧忌，不敢輕越雷池，抑或是在敵欲訴諸武力相向傷害吾人之前，針對其意圖化解敵意消弭歧見。

No white knight will save you. If someone does come to support you, a free lunch will not be served. The bill must always be paid in the future. You can only rely on yourself. The most stupid, and worst, error ever in strategic calculus is “too late”. Preventive measures implemented in advance are always a better any contingency plan than a plan deployed after a conflict occurs. The inability to foresee an emerging crisis that emanated from its diplomatic maneuvers, while also betting its fate on illusive commitments from potential white knights, was a suicidal choice that the Ukraine leadership still fails to understand until now.

不要指望他人作爲救星前來搭救；就算真有人願意前來相挺，天下也沒有白吃的午餐；到頭來還是要在未來某個時間付出代價買單。天下只有自己最可靠；在戰略算計上最愚蠢，並且亦是最糟糕之失誤就是“太遲”。及早採取防範應對措施，永遠會比等到衝突爆發後在採取應變處置作爲好得多。不去借由外交作爲前瞻可能浮現之危機，卻將未來命運押注在看起來會扮演救星者之空口無憑吹噓承諾，根本就是自取滅亡，但這卻是烏克蘭政府高層到現在還看不透想不清楚之無情現實。

忠言逆耳，良藥苦口，向來如此。

作者爲英國博士、中華戰略學會研究員，曾任國軍艦長

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