張競》外國媒體的臺海軍事分析已達神話水準

張競》外國媒體的臺海軍事分析已達神話水準。(圖/愛傳媒提供)

【愛傳媒張競評論】滿街都是洋和尚，唸經可信不可信？

10月15日英國《太陽報》(The Sun)刊登這篇對於臺海兩岸軍事態勢奇文，對於臺灣防禦能力高估程度，恐怕已經到達神話水準；大家不妨看看下列原文：

On paper China’s military dwarfs that of Taiwan but a closer look reveals how kill zone beaches hostile terrain and a 500000 strong guerrilla army could inflict a Vietnam War-style humiliation on Beijing.

In order to successfully capture the island China would have to ship an enormous number of troops plus their supplies across the 80-mile Taiwan Strait.

The operation would be the largest amphibious operation in human history easily surpassing the scale of the D-Day landings.

But when they arrive on Taiwan the Chinese will have to get past defences far stronger than those faced by the Allies in WWII and significant natural obstacles.

Taiwan has a rugged coastline with steep cliffs making only 13 beaches suitable for landing which have been turned into killing zones.

If Chinese forces do manage to make it ashore they Chinese troops who make it ashore would face roughly 175000 highly trained full-time soldiers.

There are also hundreds of thousands of fully trained reservists ready to resist any attempt at occupation using bunkers honeycombing the hills as cover from which to attack the invaders.

滿街都是洋和尚，唸經可信不可信？

到底咱們有沒有那種本事，大家看法見仁見智，但是把臺灣搞成戰場，究竟是要讓誰爽？這位評論者軍事素養高明不高明，您可以有您的評價，但是這個英國報紙報導居然還有很粗淺的英文錯字，那可就是鬧笑話囉！

amphibious operation 是錯誤用辭，應當是operations，沒錯！要加上那個”s”，那不是複數，而是專門指「軍事作戰」，operation是指作業、外科手術、運作、工作、企業、活動、行動⋯等很多意義，但軍事作戰就是必須加上那個”s”。不過在表示某個作戰行動代名，放在實際代名前時，就要用大寫，而且不要加s，例如登陸諾曼地之兩棲攻略作戰行動代名Operation Overlord，就是大寫不加s！

有個最經典笑話就是故意去問資深軍事人員When do you need joint operation?乍聽之下，每個人都會認爲是在何時要採取「聯合作戰」行動，所以個個都會長篇大論侃侃而談，但正是因爲少了那個s，所以這句英文實際上是在問「您何時需要動關節手術？」沒錯！joint除「聯合」外，也是「關節」，所以真正答案是When I get tennis elbow打網球打到手肘關節受傷，所以要動個手術。總而言之，洋和尚唸經隔靴搔癢，聽聽就好！

但此時又傳來漢光演習兵棋推演國軍大勝消息⋯⋯

假若前面那份報導是靠洋和尚唸經來當「壯膽興奮劑」，那麼這個消息就更是「嚇阻搖頭丸」；我只能用這打油詩來表達看法：

推演是在找毛病，

電腦無法斷輸贏；

兵推豈能當算命，

欺詐嚇阻無人信！

回頭看看今年10月4日美國智庫Hudson Institute 所舉辦以Preserving Peace in the Taiwan Strait 爲主題之座談會，其中美國智庫蘭德公司Scott Harold 在迴應2049研究所Mark Stokes時提到：

What that tells me is as I look at Taiwan the United States and the people of Taiwan have great reason to have confidence in Taiwan and to know that whatever the global times or other Chinese propaganda outlets say Taiwan is not Afghanistan and the Afghan national government. However if I switch to sit where Mark was sitting in Beijing I do have to be worried that Taiwan might be the Taliban a force willing to fight and endure hardship to expel an invader. And in that case Beijing which possesses a military far less capable than the United States military and which does not enjoy the support of its people could be facing a long-term insurgency from a Taiwan Armed Forces and populous that have long trained to resist Chinese military coercion.

我不知道Scott Harold博士從那來的資訊，可以支持他講出臺灣有populous that have long trained to resist Chinese military coercion.而且I do have to be worried that Taiwan might be the Taliban a force willing to fight and endure hardship to expel an invader.看到這兒，我差點失笑，最近因爲戲謔歌曲「塔綠班」嘲諷當道，結果引起強烈反彈，真沒想過將臺灣比擬成塔利班，這居然是出自洋學者之口。

唉⋯⋯洋和尚唸經，瘋道士起乩⋯⋯羣魔亂舞⋯⋯餿主意滿天飛，真是亂啊！

作者爲英國博士、中華戰略學會研究員，曾任國軍艦長

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